Niger, the unreported Guinea of West Africa

On Tuesday October 20, Niger, a vast uranium-rich state in West Africa, will see the final swing of President Mamadou Tandja's constitutional wrecking-ball.

Tandja changed his country's constitution so that he could hold a referendum which, naturally enough, gave him an overwhelming mandate to serve another three years in office on top of the normal two-term limit. Niger's supreme court ruled that Tandja's referendum was unconstitutional, so he shut it down. And to make sure nothing else got in the way, he dissolved the national assembly in case it tried to forestall his patriotic destiny.

The umbrella opposition group, Coordination of Democratic Forces of the Republic, is boycotting the election, saying it's not only illegal but will be rigged so that President Tandja can pack it with cronies. And what might a national assembly packed with Tandja's supporters do? Approving unlimited terms for their man would be a good one to start with.

Does the the rest of the world care enough to impose sanctions? Not really, and this is the menace.

Africa's wealth of natural resources leads to an inevitable hypocrisy among countries with the wealth to tap them.

Take Guinea, for example. Here is a bauxite-rich country in West Africa where soldiers of the military government led by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara killed more than 150 opposition demonstrators on September 28. ­­

Last week Ecowas, the sometimes ineffectual Economic Community of West African States, met in Nigerian capital Abuja and imposed an arms embargo on Guinea as a result of the killings.

The problem is that Guinea already has plenty of weapons. When your enemy is unarmed civilians, you don't need sophisticated military hardware. AK-47s and men willing to use them is enough. And does anyone really think Guinea buys weapons from West Africa? Go north a bit and think Ukraine.

And to prove that Guinea is in good shape, the China International Fund, a private vehicle, is planning an eye-watering $7bn investment - almost the country's entire GDP - for infrastructure, mining and oil.
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A leader in The Observer today asks whether China will earn more respect in Africa than the west did during centuries of trade, subjugation and exploitation. (What it doesn't touch on is why Africa is unable to capitalise on its own natural resources. That is a big subject, requiring courage to write, and is for another day.)

The Economist says the Chinese investment "mocks human rights in Africa".

But what will be said about Niger, where an absence of bloodspill has kept it largely off the western news agenda, but where opposition supporters started gathering today against Tandja's rule? Few reporters are based there and even western news rooms have trouble remembering whether it's part of Nigeria, the Niger Delta or somewhere else (it's somewhere else).

The Chinese know where it is.

In July, Reuters Africa reported that the country had struck a $5bn deal with Chinese state-owned oil company CNPC to produce oil and build a refinery. A planned multi-billion dollar pipeline across the Sahara is also due to pass through Niger.

So does France, which relies on Niger for energy security, and which could be a boost to Tandja's confidence. A meeting this summer between Nicolas Sarkozy and Tandja (pictured together above) resulted in French nuclear giant Areva building a $1.69bn uranium mine in northern Niger.

Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at think-tank Chatham House told Reuters
in July that one-third of French nuclear power, which supplies nearly 90% of the country's electricity, comes from Niger's uranium. "(On) energy security, a different logic kicks in" he said.

For its part, France said in July that there was no mixed message, and that it was not satisfied with Tandja's referendum plans.

Despite last week throwing its weight behind Ecowas' arms sanctions in Guinea, France has remained silent so far on Niger.

And so has the western media. Maybe reporters are still consulting maps. Or maybe they are waiting for the "pavement jam", expat reporter speak for bloodshed.